Beyond The Smoke: Fed's Rate Decisions + How I'm Positioning My Portfolio

Markets are forward looking...forward pricing. I am doing the same. This report is about rate hike/cut probabilities and the assets to buy now.

We all know the last year or so of rate hikes has been the cause of most asset prices to be re-valued lower.

We also all know that the Fed has begun to slow their rate hiking campaign as the wheels are starting to fall off (banking crisis).

As such, markets are forward looking and begin to price assets based on looking beyond the smoke.

The Tobin Report helps you to see beyond the smoke as well.

So where does the market see rates in H2 of 2023?

In This Report

☘️ Rate hike/cut probabilities for 2023

☘️ Beyond the smoke: 2 specific portfolio positions I’m leaning into that are NOT gold related (still very well positioned in gold miners)

1. Adding to a current position

2. Initiating a new position

Current Fed Funds Rate:

4.75% - 5.00%

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🗓 May 3rd Fed rate hike decision…

🔷 86% probability for a 25 bps hike

5.00% - 5.25%

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🗓 June Fed rate hike decision…

🔷 59% probability for NO RATE HIKE

🔶 10.9% 25 bps CUT

5.00% - 5.25% most likely

👉🏻 50 bps hike is not off the table. You can see a 30% chance of this…👇

If markets are forward pricing, let’s look ahead to November…

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🗓 November Fed rate hike decision…

🔷 24% probability for continued NO RATE HIKE

🔶 71% probability for RATE CUTS

👉🏻 32.5% probability of 50 bps or more of CUTS

Market is pricing in a fair amount of cuts by November. The HIGHEST probability is that after May 3rd…the Fed is done hiking.

Now anything can happen between now and November. In fact, I think we will see something break a lot sooner which will likely cause the Fed to CUT RATES sooner and potentially more aggressively.

Either way, this makes me bullish on a few assets classes. And since markets are forward looking…forward pricing…now is the time to position the portfolio in the following investments. 👇

First on my list to ADD to my portfolio is: