Fed Day Today
Good morning.
A few short notes for today…
Rate Hikes
Fed is likely to raise Fed Funds Rate by 25bps later today. If they don’t, markets rip. If they raise more…markets crater. Many good arguments for all three scnarios….pause, raise 25 bps, raise 50 bps. I think it’s more about what JP says after the announcement. Forward guidance.
What’s interesting, however, is that they actually got through a rate hike cycle without capitulating to some crisis they created.
Bank Failures
The banking system is teetering.
Daily chart of KRE, the Regional Banking ETF.
UGLY.
Interesting chart on bank failures over the last 20 years.
Circles are drawn to size.
Jobs
March 2023 - The number of US job openings fell to its lowest since April 2021.
Job vacancies fell below market expectations suggesting the labor market may finally be beginning to normalize.
Job openings still remain historically high, however, which means there’s more work to be done on this front.
Funny
Have a good day! Please share The Tobin Report with others!
Eric