The Tobin Report

Launch

Dear friends and family and anyone interested in my ramblings,

I am finally launching The Tobin Report, a free newsletter to share my thoughts and opinions as it relates to all things money and markets. Best part…it’s FREE. Yeah, I know I just said that in the first line. It’s even in bold. Whatever. If you know me, you know I love to talk about money and investing. If you don’t know me…well, I love to talk about money and investing, lol. Yes, I just did an “lol”. There will be more of that. This is an informal newsletter filled with charts, ratios, investing ideas, money things and a bit of humor. I’d love for you to subscribe. You can also share this with someone else you think they might benefit.

Why am I doing this?

Well for starters, I’m seeing lots of people lose lots of money because the leaders of our country can’t get their…well, let’s just say, our economy and monetary system are all out of wack. Many people did not know it was time to get out and now many stocks are down 50, 60, 70 & even 80%! Fortunately, for me and my family, I moved my retirement accounts to cash in tranches in the latter half of 2021 based on what I saw coming.

As of this writing, June 28th, 2022, we are in a monetary tightening cycle (interest rates rising and the Fed reducing its balance sheet) that is repricing assets to much more rational levels. We still have a long way to go. In other words, the stock market has been going down…and will continue to go down until the Fed decides enough is enough. Inflation is raging and we are also in a recession. Just about everyone knows this, but very few know what to do about it.

Sooooo…people need information…NOW more than ever.

So there’s that.

But really I just enjoy studying all things money. I find it fascinating. At this point in life, I’d like to share my research with those who are interested. That’s all.

Most of my friends are first responders, not financial analysts or advisors, so I’m also looking to share my research and knowledge (get over yourself, Eric) and help a few friends. Besides, they are tired of hearing me talk about it ad nauseam (I’ll explain later what that means, Alex).

The Tobin Report will also cover the following topics in the coming weeks and months:

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I’ll finish with one of my favorite charts:

This chart is widely recognized in the investing world as it relates to bubble theory and long term market cycles, created by Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue from Hofstra University.

There are four phases:

• Stealth - This is when smart money accumulates shares

• Awareness - Institutions step in and buy

• Mania - Your friends and family generally buy mid-late cycle

• Blow-Off - THIS is the time you need to have already sold your shares! When the mailman or Uber driver are telling you about a stock…SELL!

These cycles often take years or even a decade or more to play out but are repeatable over most, if not all investment classes throughout history. No, not EXACTLY as the chart shows, but often very similar.

Why do I share this chart? Simply put, I believe the broader markets (Nasdaq, Dow, S&P 500) are in the ‘Blow-off Phase’, meaning we are headed lower in this bear market. We have not reached capitulation yet and we may still be far off, in my opinion.

But just because we are in the Blow-off Phase in general equities does not mean ALL asset classes are in blow off mode. Many sectors and industries are JUST GETTING STARTED!

Let’s look at Uranium for a moment. Here is a weekly chart of Paladin Energy since the last bull market where it ran from .10 cents/share to over $9 in 2.5 years!

My point? If you know where to look, you’ll find opportunities where a bull market is just getting started.

My research is focused on sectors, industries, and companies that have the potential to outperform in the coming years.

Thanks for reading if you made it this far! If you want to read more, sign up.

PS - Why ‘The Tobin Report’? Well, it had a nice ring to it. Oh, and it’s my middle name.

Sincerely,

Eric Hyde